The Certainty of Uncertainty

As Benjamin Franklin once famously said, “nothing is certain except death and taxes”. And if you really want to go down the existential rabbit hole, even those carry uncertainty. You don’t generally know when and how you’re going to die, and taxes vary. Certainty in life is a beautiful illusion and yet we crave it, pretend that we have it and make life choices in order to bring more of it into our lives. Why are we like this?

Why is actually an easy question to answer, our brains are simply wired that way. The brain uses similar circuits, and craves certainty in the same way as it does for fundamental human needs like food, sex and other vital rewards. One of the most important skills of our brains is to predict the future using our memory, knowledge of our current situation and our sense of certainty. Imagine life as a nomadic hunter gatherer clan, you would want to be certain there was food, shelter and water if you were going to migrate to a different spot. You would use your knowledge of the seasons and previous experience to decide on where to set up camp, and for how long to stay, to improve your certainty of survival. Our decisions are based on creating certainty and more chance of a desired outcome. Certainty feels good, and calming.

Uncertainty doesn’t feel good and we instinctively move away from it. Uncertainty triggers an alert or threat response in the fight, flight, freeze (limbic system) area of the brain. Even in those of us with a higher tolerance for uncertainty, the alert state in the brain makes it harder to focus on issues other than that sense of ‘wrong’. For someone with a low tolerance for uncertainty, this highly uncertain world can lead to chronic threat response which may manifest as anxiety, depression and panic attacks. Those with a higher tolerance are said to have resilience, an ability to roll with the uncertainty and navigate change. Regardless of where you sit on the tolerance spectrum, however, your desire for certainty will often dictate life decisions.

These decisions may be small, like going to the same old restaurant for dinner that you know you love instead of trying the new place down the road; or big like your life path. Sometimes decisions based on more certainty work out great, and sometimes those ‘safe’, ‘secure’ and ‘certain’ choices actually put us in worse situations. Let’s take this job example, that may or may not be based on a true story. You are offered two jobs at the same time, one offers permanency (tenure) right away, the other is a 6 month contract which may lead to a permanent position. The permanent job is an uglier commute with boring work, the contract is closer to home and a more interesting position. Do you take the security or roll the dice? All of us would use past experience, gather as much information as we could and then by projecting into the future as best we could, make our choice based on what certainty we could create.

Unfortunately for us though, uncertainty is a function of the complex system in which we live, the world is unpredictable. Even going for the ‘certain’ option of that permanent job could backfire, you may hate the job and the commute so much you need a new job in 6 months, the company may go bankrupt and you’re out of a job. Or the job might get better, you end up loving it or they open a new office closer to your house. Conversely, as happened in our, ‘hypothetical’ example, the more interesting job did turn into a permanent position, you loved it for years and then burned out and needed an entire new career path anyway.

Any choice, despite surface appearances, is actually loaded with uncertainty, nothing is really set in stone or guaranteed. I mean just look at how the last two years have panned out, if you ever doubted the unpredictability of the world you surely don’t now. I’m not sure if anyone accurately predicted all that happened and changed from 2020, and made decisions accordingly. I didn’t and nor did anyone I know. This seemingly sudden plunge into uncertainty, while more of a lifting the veil or pretence, created serious mental health issues around the world. Anxiety and psychological distress levels are skyrocketing. in their Covid-19 Impact Study, the Australian National University found psychological distress in young people increased from 14% in 2017 to 22% in 2020. After peaks throughout the pandemic, as of January 2022 psychological distress is still at an elevated level compared to 2017. The illusion of certainty has been torn away and many of us are not doing well.

We’re not doing well because we’re not designed to, and if we can’t deny the uncertain world, how do we cope without falling into existential angst, anxiety, panic attacks or decision paralysis? We can build our resilience to uncertainty.

Resilience is a becoming a bit of a buzz word in health circles, and there’s good reason. Physiological systems, ecosystems, plants, and animals that have high levels of resilience can thrive in more challenging circumstances. Fortunately resilience can be a matter of practice and learning rather than something you have or don’t. If you’re feeling low in tolerance for uncertainty, high in anxiety check out these helpful tips from the American Psychological Association to build resilience.

Build Connections: prioritise building healthy and supportive relationships with people you can trust. It doesn’t have to be huge numbers of people, the key is to find those you can have a mutually supportive, and understanding relationship with.

Take Care of Your Body: a healthy body relieves stress and gives you a much better chance at a healthy outlook. Make sure you get the sleep, exercise, hydration and nutrients that your body needs.

Mindfulness: it may sound cheesy or time consuming but it doesn’t have to be. It can be as simple as bringing your whole attention to whatever task it is you are doing. Even if it is just washing the dishes, pay attention to the feel of the water, the way you move the sponge and any other little details rather than letting the mind wander. You could focus on your breathing for a few moments, or journaling, anything that will help you disengage from worry even temporarily. It’s a practice so it’s not going to be perfect first go, find out more here.

Enjoyment: Do things you enjoy. Pick up the book you’ve been meaning to read, watch the show you love, go for a walk or whatever will be enjoyable for you. Find something that is positive and helps take your mind from the worry and anxiety.

Create Time for Worry: give yourself a specific time of day, and a specific length of time to worry. It might be 20 minutes at 7pm each day, for example, that you allow the worry and the possible catastrophising. Knowing you are allowed to go for it at that particular time can help you to let go of worry for the rest of the day, as worry comes up at midday you can tell it to pop back at 7pm.

Get Help: sometimes we have gone too far to pull ourselves out of our anxiety, too far for our support network and we need professional help from counsellors or psychologists. There are professionals to be found online, via telehealth or in person.